Chaotic Not Random
Tuesday, August 17, 2004

Seen at ESPN.com Monday:
Scott Rolen nudged into the NL MVP lead after yesterday's 2-HR blitz over the Braves, making him first to 100 RBI.
And then on Tuesday:
Was I saying Scott Rolen was the NL MVP leader? I meant teammate Albert Pujols, who hit his MLB-leading 37th HR last night (his 5th in 4 games). With the Cards up 14 games, one of 'em is going to win it.
Let's dispel this madness immediately. Any list of National League MVP candidates including names other than "Barry Bonds" is blasphemous nonsense. Sure, Pujols has hit 6 more home runs and Rolen has driven in 32 more runs. But that's because nobody will pitch to Bonds -- he has taken more walks (171) this year than Rolen and Pujols combined (115). It's hard to hit home runs and accumulate RBI (a mostly meaningless stat anyway) when most of the pitches you see land in the dirt or cruise by two feet outside the plate. And when pitchers dare to put the ball in the strike zone, Bonds punishes them for their vanity. Compare Bonds' on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) to those of Rolen and Pujols:

OBP SLG OPS
---- ---- -----
Bonds .605 .769 1.374
Rolen .414 .617 1.030
Pujols .407 .653 1.060

If the season ended today, Bonds would have the highest single-season on-base percentage ever, as well as the sixth-highest slugging percentage and the fourth-highest OPS. Only Babe Ruth and Bonds himself have done better in either category.

Some will say that either Rolen or Pujols have earned the MVP because they play for the Cardinals, a team comfortably ensconced in first place, while Bonds' Giants are scrapping for the wild card. This is the same specious argument used in years past to rob Alex Rodriguez of multiple deserved MVP awards, and I'm too tired to point out its flaws tonight. I will only say that we baseball fans have the rare treat of watching Barry Bonds compile one of the great offensive seasons in the history of the game. Much like the Clinton impeachment looks sillier with every passing year, so a decision to deprive Bonds of the 2004 MVP award will be ridiculed by future baseball fans.

Don't take Barry Bonds for granted. With each season he plays, he solidifies his place in the pantheon of baseball greats. In terms of total career Win Shares, Bonds this season has passed Tris Speaker, Cy Young, and Hank Aaron on the all-time list. Barring injury, he will by the end of the season pass Honus Wagner to settle in third place. If he remains healthy and productive through 2006, he could well pass Ty Cobb and Babe Ruth and make a strong claim for the title of Greatest Baseball Player Ever.

Speaking of all-time greats, we have had the privilege over the last two decades -- modestly dubbed the "ESPN Era" by a certain television network -- of enjoying the careers of some of the greatest athletes of all time. Every era has its great athletes, of course, but I'm talking about athletes who transcend era and have claimed a place among the very best their sports have seen.

In addition to Bonds, we baseball fans have gotten to see Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux, two of the greatest pitchers ever. We've gotten to see Michael Jordan, the greatest basketball player of all time. We've witnessed the careers of hockey immortals Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, and Patrick Roy. I don't follow football that closely, but the names "Barry Sanders," "Emmitt Smith," and "Jerry Rice" seem to crop up a lot on short lists of great running backs and wide receivers. We saw Carl Lewis win ten Olympic medals and Jackie Joyner-Kersee win five, establishing themselves among the greatest track and field athletes ever. We got to watch Pete Sampras and Steffi Graf win 14 and 22 Grand Slam singles titles, more than any man or woman, respectively, in tennis history. This year we cheered Lance Armstrong to his mind-boggling record sixth consecutive Tour de France victory. And all of these athletes wrought their amazing feats against far deeper competition from more nations and races than their predecessors.

We've already had a Golden Age of sports, so what to call the current epoch? The Platinum Age? The Age of Immortals? The Most Fucking-A Kickin'est Ass-est Age of Sports Ever and Stuff? Whatever -- it's a lot of fun.

+posted by Lawrence @ 8/17/2004 11:36:00 PM


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