Everybody seems to agree that Ichiro is the front-runner for the American League MVP award. Can somebody please explain why?

Thank you. I am fully aware that Ichiro's .331 batting average leads the league by a commanding three points. But what about Ichiro's other statistics? Specifically, what about his on-base percentage (OBP), which baseball statheads have shown to be a better measure of offensive performance than batting average? OBP is an especially important stat for speedy, scrappy leadoff men like Ichiro, whose job it is to get on base by any means possible -- clean hits, walks, errors, bunts, or by legging out slow rollers. Due to his inability to draw walks, Ichiro's OBP is just .371, ranking him 19th in the league and well behind OBP leader Carlos Delgado at .431. How can Ichiro be MVP when the one thing he is supposed to do best is done better by 18 other players?

Ichiro's MVP candidacy looks even worse when you consider his lack of power; he's hit just 11 home runs and his slugging percentage is .454. Forty-eight other players -- led by Alex Rodriguez at .602 -- are slugging better. Even better: let's add OBP to slugging percentage to generate OPS, probably the best single index for gauging production at the plate. Ichiro's OPS of .825 is 33rd in the league, light-years behind Delgado at 1.021.

Huh? What's that? You say Ichiro is the most complete player in the league, wreaking havoc on the basepaths and making an impact in the field? Ichiro does run well. He scores a lot of runs and is tied for second in the league in stolen bases. But it's hard to bring too much fury on the basepaths when your don't reach base often enough, and 92 runs scored plus 30 stolen bases won't make up for the enormous productivity gap at the plate between him and Jason Giambi, or Manny Ramirez, or even his teammate, Bret Boone.

I have to agree that Ichiro is the best outfielder in the game -- his range and arm are amazing. Still, he's a right fielder, and no right fielder contributes as much to his team on defense as a Gold Glove-winning shortstop like, say, A-Rod, who also sports an OPS of 1.001.

Look. Ichiro is a fine player and a joy to watch and I wish he played for my favorite team, the Rockies. I just wonder why so many observers rank him at the top of the MVP race in spite of massive statistical evidence placing him as a top-10 candidate at best. Also, I wonder why nobody is considering A-Rod for MVP. Aha! you say, that one's easy: A-Rod plays for a losing team. It shouldn't matter -- and that's a post for another day.

+posted by Lawrence @ 8/26/2003 04:07:00 PM